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Abstract The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available. 

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses cross species barriers and have the potential to cause pandemics. In North America, HPAI A(H5N1) viruses related to the goose/Guangdong 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin phylogenetic clade have infected wild birds, poultry, and mammals. Our genomic analysis and epidemiological investigation showed that a reassortment event in wild bird populations preceded a single wild bird–to-cattle transmission episode. The movement of asymptomatic or presymptomatic cattle has likely played a role in the spread of HPAI within the United States dairy herd. Some molecular markers that may lead to changes in transmission efficiency and phenotype were detected at low frequencies. Continued transmission of H5N1 HPAI within dairy cattle increases the risk for infection and subsequent spread of the virus to human populations. 

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 haemagglutinin clade 2.3.4.4b was detected in the USA in 2021. These HPAI viruses caused mortality events in poultry, wild birds and wild mammals. On 25 March 2024, HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b was confirmed in a dairy cow in Texas in response to a multistate investigation into milk production losses¹. More than 200 positive herds were identified in 14 US states. The case description included reduced feed intake and rumen motility in lactating cows, decreased milk production and thick yellow milk^2,3. The diagnostic investigation revealed viral RNA in milk and alveolar epithelial degeneration and necrosis and positive immunoreactivity of glandular epithelium in mammary tissue. A single transmission event, probably from birds, was followed by limited local transmission and onward horizontal transmission of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B3.13 (ref. ⁴). Here we sought to experimentally reproduce infection with genotype B3.13 in Holstein yearling heifers and lactating cows. Heifers were inoculated by an aerosol respiratory route and cows by an intramammary route. Clinical disease was mild in heifers, but infection was confirmed by virus detection, lesions and seroconversion. Clinical disease in lactating cows included decreased rumen motility, changes to milk appearance and production losses. Infection was confirmed by high levels of viral RNA detected in milk, virus isolation, lesions in mammary tissue and seroconversion. This study provides the foundation to investigate additional routes of infection, pathogenesis, transmission and intervention strategies.